In this text, we will use the ingredients-based forecast methodology (Doswell et al., 1996) to deal with forecasting severe convective storms. This 'methodology' is based on the idea that for each weather phenomenon a set of ingredients can be defined that are required for it to occur. Firstly, we identify the following ingredients necessary for convective storms:

Latent instability (i.e. presence of CAPE)

Sufficient lift to release the instability

We will discuss these two ingredients in the following paragraphs. Thereafter, it will be explained that vertical wind shear is important for the creation of convective storms that produce severe weather. It will be argued that for organized severe storms, an additional ingredient is needed:

Vertical wind shear