Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 27 Apr 2024 08:00 to Sat 27 Apr 2024 11:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 27 Apr 2024 07:40
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for NW into W-CNTRL France for organized convection with an augmented severe risk. A few tornado events are possible.

Time-frame for organized convection: 11Z-18Z

A N-ward lifting warm front will be the focus for a few organized storms. This area resides beneath the NE quadrant of a structuring surface depression, which is forecast to be located over the NE Bay of Biscay during the afternoon hours. An attached warm front pushes N through the MD area. Some breaks in the clouds occur which is enough for adequate CAPE build-up in the 300-600 MUCAPE range.

Forecast soundings indicate skinny/elongated CAPE profiles but also very moist conditions throughout the troposphere with not much entrainment forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms occur during that period with adequate kinematics for organized convection: 20 m/s DLS and curved LL hodographs. Combined with low LCLs (aob 600 m AGL) a few tornado events are possible with any more sustained and deviating thunderstorm. Weak cap should support clustering convection which consumes CAPE rapidly so the main risk may last only a few hours or so during the afternoon. Heavy rain and marginal hail accompanies stronger storms. After sunset, vanishing CAPE precludes ongoig DMC activity.