Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 08 Apr 2024 14:00 to Mon 08 Apr 2024 17:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 08 Apr 2024 14:28
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A MD was issued for parts of NW into N Germany.

The grazing short-wave and enhanced BL moisture advection to the N/NNE(driven by stronger SW-erly mixed BL flow over W-CNTRL to CNTRL Germany) could yield a temporal window of opportunity for near uncapped conditions within this MD. Latest nowcast data supports near uncapped 400-800 J/kg MUCAPE with spotty CI possible along the S fringe of the decaying precipitation (currently over NW North Rhine Westphalia), which also marks the passing wave.

NWP guidance is very reluctant with CI as not much background and BL forcing is present but an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out with a wind profile supportive for more organized updrafts. Isolated hail would be the main risk. For most places weak capping should preclude CI however. Also, real CAPE magnitude could be lower than advertized by NWP guidance due to the drier mid-level environment with better entrainment. This low-end risk diminishes after sunset from SW to NE.