Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 19 Jan 2024 06:00 to Sat 20 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 18 Jan 2024 23:42
Forecaster: PUCIK/KUZMENKO

A level 1 was issued across S Spain and N Morocco mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts..

A level 1 was issued across Turkey mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued across central Turkey mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

... Morocco, S Spain ...

A pronounced short-wave trough will be crossing the highlighted area during the morning hours. A cyclogenesis is forecast across interior Iberia, strengthening low-level flow and yielding 850 hPa windspeeds up to 25 m/s across S Spain. Within the low-level jet, strongly curved hodographs are forecast with 0-1 km bulk shear exceeding 15 m/s and 0-500 SRH values locally above 200 m2/s2. Combined with low LCLs, the primary threat will be tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will be possible too given the strong mean low-level flow. The highest risk is forecast along the coastlines, where the highest low-level CAPE will be and thus also potential for rapid stretching of vertical vorticity near the surface.

... Turkey ...

A shallow short-wave trough is forecast to cross the region during the day. At the base of the trough, 500 hPa windspeeds of around 25 m/s are forecast. Combined with 850 hPa flow around 15 m/s and backed surface flow, hodographs show conditions ideal for supercells with 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk shear exceeding 20 m/s and pronounced hodograph curve in the lower troposphere. 0-1 km bulk shear is forecast to be above 10 m/s, combined with 0-500 SRH values locally above 100 m2/s2.

Steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to overspread the area together with modest low-level moisture, giving rise to MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg. Stable layer around 850 hPa may, at least initially, limit the convective initiation and its coverage. Nevertheless, isolatedto scattered storms are expected and will become supercells or small linear segments, quickly moving east. All hazards are forecast except for heavy rainfall. Large hail will be the primary one, given majority of CAPE in cold part of the cloud, high LCLs and convective mode suggesting isolated supercells. Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible too, given the degree of the shear in the lower troposphere. A small lvl 2 is introduced for the region, where the ARCHaMo shows the highest probabilities of severe weather and where there is best agreement in models concerning a solid overlap of CAPE and strong shear.