Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Dec 2023 06:00 to Wed 13 Dec 2023 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Dec 2023 23:01
Forecaster: KUZMENKO/PUCIK

A level 1 has been issued across the East Mediterranean mainly for heavy rainfall and marginally large hail.

DISCUSSION

... East Mediterranean ...

A trough will reside over the area, generating a convergence zone over the extreme east part of the Mediterranean. The mostly onshore flow is forecast to cause redevelopment of storms throughout the forecast period; however, the models seem to be in agreement that the formation of supercells is unlikely, due to the values of 0-6 km shear remaining below 15 m/s. With CAPE reaching 900 J/kg and most of it located in the cold part of the cloud, marginally large hail may occur. The hail threat will be significantly limited by skinny CAPE profiles. On the other hand, these may support some localized heavy rainfall events, in conjunction with the low LCLs and mean flow around 5 m/s.

... France ...

A marginal Lvl 1 was considered for this area for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. While 0-1 km bulk shear will exceed 10 m/s and LCLs will be low, the hodographs will remain mostly straight with low values of streamwise vorticity in the inflow to the storms. Severe wind gusts will be limited by modest flow in the bottom 3 km, not exceeding 20 m/s at any point. Furthermore, lack of concentrated mesoscale lift will prevent the development of larger linear convective systems.