Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 13 Jul 2023 13:00 to Thu 13 Jul 2023 16:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Jul 2023 13:12
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Numerous swaths of severe to extremely severe hail and wind gusts expected in the next 3 hours over the area ***


Several intense storms, including supercells, have developed across Slovenia and are moving towards Croatia and Hungary. Zagreb 12 UTC sounding shows MLCAPE over 1800 J/kg, moist mid-troposphere and straight hodograph with 23 m/s of 0-3 km and 28 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. The environment is very favorable for both supercells and fast-moving linear segments eventually forming bow-echoes. Surface observations show high dewpoints, between 18 and 22 deg C in a belt from Croatia to central Romania. Therefore, the storms are expected to either maintain intensity or even further intensify as they move east.