Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 06 Jun 2023 06:00 to Wed 07 Jun 2023 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Jun 2023 21:04
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued across SE Central Europe for extreme rainfall.

A level 2 was issued for the Caucasus area for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts, and extreme rainfall.

Levels 1s were issued across the Mediterranean for extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across southern France and northern Spain for large hail.

DISCUSSION

Suble synoptic-scale conditions prevail across Europe. The only region that sees strong vertical wind shear is south of the Caucasus, where a good CAPE / shear overlap will allow for supercells on Tuesday, capaable of very large hail and severe gusts.

The north Mediterranean and parts of Turkey are expected to get locally extreme rainfall with slow moving storms in moist / skinny CAPE profiles. Highlighted with level 2 is a convergence zone across west Hungary to Czechia and west Slovakia were extreme rainfall will be more widespread as clusters of storms will develop.

Some large hail is forecast across parts of Spain and France due to some more intense updrafts in 10 to 15 m/s deep-layer shear. A brief supercell is not ruled out.