Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 07 Jul 2022 14:00 to Thu 07 Jul 2022 17:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Jul 2022 14:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MESOSCALE DISCUSSION was issued to highlight an evening/nocturnal severe risk (15Z-06Z).

Latest data indicates 2m dewpoints in the upper tens/lower twenties with active storms already along the fringes of this MD. There exist some timing issues with convection over NE Italy compared to some models but all take this activity offshore over the N Adriatic Sea during the evening with new CI long the NE coast of Italy. Destructive interference with the progressive cold front seems unlikely with models like ICON-EU remaining too agrressive with its southward push (compared to realtime data). ICON-D2 however seems to have a better handling in a retarded frontal approach compared to other models.

Current thinking is that offshore moving convection will have a severe/damaging wind gust risk with the forecast wedge of drier air below 700 hPa. Aoa 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will be partially capped but this should be offset by enhanced convergence between S-erly inflow ahad of the approaching cold front.

Uncertainties remain along the Italian coast, where CI occurs and when upscale growth into a progressive MCS will be underway. With maximized BL moisture along the coastal areas in addition to potential laid out outflow boundaries from diurnal convection the chance for a SE-ward zipping MCS with hail/severe wind gusts is well possible next to an isolated tornado threat.