Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:00 to Wed 20 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Oct 2021 20:00
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland, UK and NW France mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strong WAA currently taking place in western Europe, east of a deep Atlantic low which has created an impressive WCB. The associated atmospheric river that brings subtropical air in high latitudes up to N UK, will be the hosting environment of a few storms. A high-CAPE-low-shear set up in Ireland, W UK and NW France may result in a few damaging convective wind gusts. In addition, heavy rain is also expected, but most of it non-convective.
Lower geopotentials can be found in eastern Europe and Asia Minor, where a few short-wave troughs will act as the lifting mechanisms of locally unstable air masses, mostly close to Tunisia, Gulf of Mersin and eastern Black Sea, but these storms should remain non-severe.