Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 05 Aug 2021 15:00 to Thu 05 Aug 2021 19:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 05 Aug 2021 15:40
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

In the wake of a zone with precipitation, abundant low-level humidity is in place across far NE Hungary, E Slovakia, SE Poland, and SW Ukraine. In combination with surface temperatures of 22-24C, 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE should be available in this region. Given that ample quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion is in place right ahead of the mid/upper trough, it is no miracle that isolated new storms are initiating. While deep-layer shear decreases toward the west of the area, low-level hodographs should be long, supported by a measurement of 20 m/s southerly wind at 3000 m AGL measured at Napkor, E Hungary, at 15 UTC. Storms may consequentially develop strong level rotation and an attendant risk of tornadoes will develop during the coming hours.