Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 04 Aug 2021 11:00 to Wed 04 Aug 2021 14:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 Aug 2021 10:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

to highlight an isolated tornado threat over NW Italy

Fore a synoptic overview, please refer to the previous MD.

In addition to the rainfall risk, an augmented tornado threat exists with any more discrete cell. SRH-3 is in the
150-250 m^2/s^2 range with slightly lower values in the 1 km range. LCLs stay low with 2m dewpoints in the upper tens and temperatures in the lower twenties.
MLCAPE is in the 500-1000 J/kg range with enhanced LL CAPE due to cooling H85 temperatures.

The main mitigating factor could be the overall tendency for convection to grow upscale into small clusters, but especially the tail-end activity should be monitored for rotation.

Note: Please keep in mind that the validity of this MD does not represent the duration of this event. It is just an updated information.