Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 15 Jun 2021 06:00 to Wed 16 Jun 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Jun 2021 20:18
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 2 has been issued for parts of western Russia for large hail, severe convective wind gusts, excessive precipitation, and tornadoes.
A level 1 has been issued for parts of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and tornadoes.
A level 1 has been issued for parts of Greece and Turkey mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.
A level 1 has been issued for parts of Portugal and Spain mainly for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
Two main synoptic features will affect the European weather on Tue 14/06, a vigorous cut-off low over eastern Europe that will lead to DMC events and a strong ridge in the western parts of the continent where a WAA takes place. A few additional shortwave troughs will affect Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula, with the latter being associated with a cut-off low over the Azores. In the far eastern side of the outlook domain, another cut-off low in Russia will destabilize the environment where we expect the most severe thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
.... Russsia ....
Below the remnants of a cut-off low with several vorticity maxima, a surface low-pressure system results in veering wind profiles of unstable air masses. QG-forcing along with diurnal heating will provide lift to these moist and warm air masses, feeding more than 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. High values of SREH0-3km and stronger than 10-15 m/s DLS indicate that storms will acquire strong rotation and form supercells. These storms will be able to produce all kinds of severe weather, including tornadoes. SREH0-1km also supports the scenario for tornadogenesis, exceeding 200 m2/s2 while overlapping with high CAPE. Storm activity will not stop during the night but threats will be lower, due to elevated convection.
.... Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania ....
A large level-1 threat area has been issued in eastern Europe, where a high-CAPE low-shear setup is expected. Weak storm motions of volatile air masses suggest that storms will be slow-moving but able to produce hail (large hail or large amounts of small hail) and excessive rainfall. A few severe convective wind gusts (downbursts) cannot be ruled out due to high values of low/mid-level delta thetae values, as well as tornadoes and waterspouts close to the coasts of the Black Sea where LCLs will be lower and some low-level shear is forecast.
.... Greece and Turkey ....
Under the core of a very cold drop, several storms are expected after the time of maximum diurnal heating. DLS will be strong in the periphery of the cut-off low and no clear overlap of CAPE and shear is expected. Nevertheless, the storms that will develop in Greece and Turkey will be able to produce hail, mostly small in large amounts. A few large hail events cannot be ruled out, as well as local flash floods.
.... Portugal and Spain ....
An EML over the Iberian Peninsula will create favorable conditions for microbursts, as LCLs are calculated above 2000 m and effective PWAT reaches values up to 25-30 mm. Also, DLS will reach locally 15 m/s, overlapping with high CAPE and very steep lapse rates, and storms may organize rapidly, producing large hail. Storm activity will continue during the night.
