Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 09 Feb 2021 06:00 to Wed 10 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 08 Feb 2021 22:12
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for W Italy, W and E Greece and W Turkey mainly for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.


SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A parade of short-wave troughs over the Mediterranean results in several severe weather events. The jet stream over the Mediterranean is perturbed by these troughs and the development of many vorticity maxima provides lift to unstable air masses. Steep lapse rates and moist PBL create a few hundreds of CAPE close to the coasts which overlap with strong DLS, in the order of 15-25 m/s, locally even stronger.

The coasts of Italy, Greece and Turkey will receive high amounts of precipitation, most of it of convective nature, but the main threat will be the formation of large hail or large amounts of small hail. In addition, severe wind gusts are well possible as a strong low-level flow has been established and will be locally enhanced by convective phenomena.