Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Jan 2021 06:00 to Sun 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 16 Jan 2021 00:22
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the north-east Mediterranean mainly for heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Ridging is located from Iberia to northern Europe, while a deep trough is situated over eastern Europe. Its center is located over Romania, with several intense vort-maxima rotating around it. Ahead of the trough, a strong south-westerly flow has established over south-eastern Europe, with a strong frontal zone extending over Turkey.

At lower levels, dry air is present except for the east Mediterranean and the Bay of Biscay. While lapse rates in the western parts are weak, some CAPE is expeced over the east Mediterranean tomorrow. Within the south-westerly flow ahead of the frontal boundary, a moist air mass with narrow CAPE profiles will advect into the area. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the day, with storms decaying over the land due to less low-level moisture. However, strong non-convective precip will be likely in the warm air advection regime.

Main thread will be high amounts of rain that will be convective close to the Mediterranean. A level 1 was introduced for this reason. Skinny CAPE profiles, high relative humidity in the troposphere, and a strong flow towards the shores that will also experience topographic lift are in place through-out the period. Limiting factors will be the low precipitable water and weak CAPE.