Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 20 Jul 2020 06:00 to Tue 21 Jul 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Jul 2020 04:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across S Ukraine and S Russia coast mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


DISCUSSION

A westerly flow in the mid/upper levels across much of Europe pushes a cold front and upper trough into north-central Europe and Scandinavia. The warm airmass offers up to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE over Poland with 5-15 m/s DLS, supporting isolated large hail. The profiles seem too humid for wind gusts threat and the flow should still be fast enough to prevent excessive local rainfall. The front can keep producing thunderstorms into the night when moving across NE Poland, Baltic Sea, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The Iberian Peninsula also features unstable air, with an upper cold pool moving into southern Spain and Portugal with mostly elevated or high-based convection (inverted-V) with chances of "dry" lightning and perhaps an isolated severe wind gust event.

...S Ukraine, S Russia...

Another upper shortwave trough moves from Romania eastward, developing 500-1000 J/kg CAPE during the night and is situated under a jet streak with 20 m/s DLS, although the best vertical lifting and uncapped parcels seems to be placed well west of the area with best SREH, nevertheless there is decent shear and large hail and severe wind gusts may be produced.