Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 May 2020 06:00 to Thu 14 May 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 May 2020 19:38
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across southern France and southern Iberia mainly for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A complex synoptic-scale situation has evolved over Europe with a deep cyclonic vortex over Scandinavia with several short-wave troughs rotating around its base. At Wednesday 12 UTC, the first one will be situated over the Northern Sea, second over the Baltic states and the third one over Russia. The third one is associated with a pronounced cold front, behind which an arctic airmass has advected over much of central and eastern Europe. A subtle short-wave is forecast across the Caucasus region and a cyclonic vortex will reside west of Iberia. In between of these two features, a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean towards the Balkans. Another subtle short-wave is forecast to eject from the cyclonic vortex over Iberia and cross southern France towards the Alps.

While numerous areas are forecast to experience pronounced synoptic-scale lift, ingredients will favour development of deep-moist convection only over certain spots. In general, much of the forecast domain will lack substantial overlap of steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates and abundant lower-tropospheric moisture. Most of the highlighed regions will only see marginal CAPE values and severe weather threat will stay rather low.

Isolated severe weather threat, in form of excessive precipitation, is forecast over southern Iberia and southern France, where forecast profile suggest efficient heavy rainfall production in storms.