Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 May 2020 10:00 to Wed 13 May 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 May 2020 10:29
Forecaster: KAHRAMAN

A level 1 was issued across SE Moldavia and parts of S Ukraine mainly for large hail.

DISCUSSION

A cold air mass is spreading over Northern Europe behind a low pressure, with a cold front from Belarus towards Romania. The most favorable area for convective storms is this cold front and its east, with higher moisture and instability co-located. 15 to 30 m/s 0-6 km shear would enhance the storm organization, mainly increasing towards north, where the CAPE is weaker. There is relatively larger CAPE in the hail growth zone over SE Moldavia and adjacent parts of Ukraine, where the freezing levels are below 3 km. Although the warm cloud depth is not quite shallow, some hail may remain large until reaching the surface in this environment. Behind the cold air mass, some low-topped storms over parts of Scandinavia can produce lightning.

Other areas with thunder are the Iberian Peninsula and Northern Adriatic region. The storms forming in these regions would mainly be single cells or unorganized clusters, given the weaker deep layer shear. For Spain, the shear increases towards east, but the instability is not high enough to benefit from that. During the night, some convection forming over Western Mediterranean would move over S France.