Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 Apr 2020 06:00 to Thu 23 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 Apr 2020 22:24
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across Tunisia and Sicily mainly for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across eastern Iraq and southeastern Turkey mainly for heavy rainfall, large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Stable weather conditions are forecast across much of eastern, central and also western Europe under the influence of an extensive high pressure system centered over the Norwegian Sea and Scandinavia. Along its eastern flank, a continental dry airmass has advected over Balkans and central Europe.

More active weather pattern is forecast in conjunction with a low at mid to upper troposphere, centered south of Sardegna, slowly moving east and filling in during the forecast period. Along its southeastern flank, strong mid-tropospheric flow will result in strong DLS exceeding 20 m/s. In this belt, storms may become well-organised and pose a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Another area with potential for severe convective storms will be the Middle East, especially eastern Iraq and southeastern Turkey. Here, the models simulate strongly curved and long hodographs with SRH 0-3 km values exceeding 300 m2/s2. While the exact convective mode remains uncertain, very well organised storms, including bow-echoes and supercells, are likely given the strength of the shear, with all severe hazards possible. Main limiting factor will be rather skinny CAPE in the zone, where storms are forecast to initiate.