Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Apr 2020 06:00 to Thu 16 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Apr 2020 18:49
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for eastern Portugal and southern Spain mainly for excessive rainfall and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Synoptic-scale pattern over Europe will be dominated by an Omega type pattern with a ridge stretching from the central Mediterranean towards BENELUX and the UK. The ridge will secure stable weather conditions over much of western and central Europe. More active weather pattern is forecast across Scandinavia, parts of eastern and southern Europe.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across cold front over the Aegean Sea. Higher storm coverage is expected over Iberia, in conjunction with the passage of a pronounced trough at mid to upper troposphere. Storms are forecast to exist over southern Iberia already in the morning and will spread northward during the day. While lack of steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates will preclude strong buoyancy and high CAPE values, strong vertical wind shear is forecast. The strongest shear is simulated by models over southern part of the area and in the morning hours. Forecast hodographs are curved in the lower troposphere with over 100 m2/s2 of SRH in the 0-1 km layer and around 20 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer. Combination of strong shear in the lower troposphere along with the low LCLs point to a threat of tornadoes with developing supercells. Heavy rainfall will also be possible as numerous rounds of convection are possible during the day.