Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 10 Apr 2020 06:00 to Sat 11 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 10 Apr 2020 07:25
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across (areas)northern Iraq, western Iran, and north-eastern Syria for large hail and wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

The axis of a mid-level ridge extends from the southern Ionian Sea to the British Isles. It is flanked by a polar trough across northern and eastern Europe and weak troughs moving across Iberia into the south Mediterranean. A trough across Turkey slowly leaves the forecast area. Dry air masses over most of Europe including the Mediterranean limit storm potential. Isolated storms are not ruled out across the Ukraine and Spain, but high equilibrium level temperatures are indicated by latest models and most convection will not produce thunder. More storms are expected across southern Turkey and Iraq.

DISCUSSION

South-eastern Turkey, northern Iraq, western Iran, north-eastern Syria

Ahead of the progressing trough over Turkey, strong deep-layer vertical wind shear is still present over Iran and also into Iraq. Strong diurnal heating will again result in some uncapped surface-based CAPE due to steep lapse rates and increased moisture along a weak frontal boundary. Initiation is most likely over the mountains during the afternoon. Storm organization will increase from west to east with increasing deep-layer shear. Straight-line hodographs will support splitting storms across Iran and Iraq, where large hail is forecast. Additionally, deep boundary-layer mixing in the southern portions of the risk area is associated with a severe downburst potential. Farther west, more unorganized storms are expected to form over Syria, Turkey, and the east Mediterranean. Some marginal large hail is not ruled out with the stronger storms.