Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 05 Apr 2020 06:00 to Mon 06 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Apr 2020 21:26
Forecaster: GATZEN

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A mid-level anticyclone has established across Central Europe that ridges into the North Sea and Scandinavia. An upstream trough will lift from the Bay of Biscay towards the British Isles. A cut-off trough becomes quasi-stationary over Greece. At lower levels, dry air masses limit any convective storm potential over most places. Better moisture is located from the Aegean Sea towards Turkey where it partly overlaps with steep lapse rates. Moist air masses are also advected into western Europe, where lapse rates are poor.

DISCUSSION

Aegean, Turkey

East of the cut-off trough center, quite rich low-level moisture is present that overlaps with increasing lapse rates that form in response to surface heating of a deep cold air mass. Some weak surface-based CAPE is expected to develop, allowing for showers and thunderstorms. Degree of storm organization will be low due to weak CAPE and weak deep-layer vertical wind shear. Best shear will be present at the eastern edge of the unstable air mass. Therefore, a threat level is not issued, although the most intense storms may produce excessive precipitation. Additionally, locally, severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are not ruled out. Finally, waterspouts are forecast along the shores given weak vertical wind shear and some surface-based instability.