Valid: Mon 23 Mar 2020 06:00 to Tue 24 Mar 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 22 Mar 2020 21:16
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued across NW Algeria mainly for large hail.
Strong high pressure across central Europe drives an easterly flow of cold air up to Western Europe and progressing into Southern Europe. An mid level cold pool drifts over the western Balkan, but is barely able to generate deep convection due to the dry low level air. A waning mid level cold pool over the Iberian Peninsula with mild air underneath is able to generate slight, weakly capped CAPE which produces thunderstorm activity. Over Algeria steeper lapse rates advect northward. 250-500 J/kg CAPE forms, elevated over the Alboran Sea, with a weakly capped zone with LCLs of 2000 m over NW Algeria under SREH of 250-500 m2/s2, favorable for supercells. DLS is 20 m/s and 0-1 km shear >12 m/s, which may help tornadogenesis. But with the high LCL, large hail seems more likely.