Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 10 Mar 2020 07:00 to Wed 11 Mar 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Mar 2020 07:51
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of Algeria, Tunisia, Malta, and S Italy mainly for severe wind gusts. Large hail is also expected in Algeria and Tunisia.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Two PV-streamers have reached the Mediterranean as a strong ridge is forming in western Europe. Both PV-streamers become thinner during the period of this forecast and eventually will be cut off the main circulation forming two main upper-level cut-offs with many PV maxima over the Mediterranean and the Black Sea by Tuesday night. Near the surface, a fast-moving cold-front associated with a low-pressure system in the North Sea is about to form an occlusion reaching the warm front over Germany and Denmark later in the day. Another occlusion can be found in eastern Europe and a cyclone over the Aegean Sea is moving fast N-NE towards the Black Sea following the mid/upper-level disturbance, gradually both moving in phase over Ukraine by the morning of Wednesday and will dissipate. A few low-topped storms around the Black Sea cannot be ruled out given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Higher CAPE values can be found in the eastern parts of the Aegean Sea and W-S Turkey, where some non-severe storms are also expected.

Severe weather events are expected only in the areas marked with a level-1 threat, where an overlap of CAPE and strong DLS is forecast. The strong 850 hPa flow suggests that storms that will manage to form into this strongly sheared environment will be able to produce severe wind gusts. The threat is maximized close to the coasts facing north given the direction of the flow. Moreover, small or hail even up to 2 cm in diameter cannot be ruled out in the coasts of N Africa given the steep lapse rates, 400-500 J/kg CAPE and 20 m/s DLS. Finally, several waterspouts are expected close to the coasts of Central and Eastern Mediterranean.