Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Feb 2020 06:00 to Fri 21 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Feb 2020 00:13
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across southern Turkey and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A digging east European trough progresses east with ist main vorticity axis crossing the Adriatic and Greece on Thursday and the Aegean in the following night. Ahead of the trough, a moist air mass advects into the east Mediterranean. Upstream, another digging trough crosses the British Isles, North Sea, and northern Germany.

DISCUSSION

East Mediterranean

Ahead of the approaching trough, lapse rates of a moist air mass continue to increase at low levels. Latest models indicate low-level CAPE and equilibrium level temperature as low as -30°C. Thunderstorms are therefore forecast, especially along the Turkish coast where upslope flow assist to lift. Furthermore, frontal lift is expected. Storms that form may be not too well-organized since the low-level wind field is relatively weak and vertical wind shear stays below 10 m/s in the lowest 3 km in most places. Multicells are forecast in 20 m/s 0-6 km shear with straight-line hodographs. However, locally, topographic modification of the low-level wind field can result in some veering at low levels, and since CAPE is available, rotating updrafts can occur, with a potential of tornadoes. Main threat, however, is excessive rain along the mountains ranges.