Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Feb 2020 06:00 to Thu 06 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 04 Feb 2020 22:02
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across Turkey mainly for tornadoes, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for northeastern Greece, western and southern Turkey mainly for tornadoes, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A deep trough will continue digging from Italy towards Greece and the Ionian Sea. A short-wave trough on its eastern flank will move from Greece towards the Black Sea and another short-wave located on its western flank will translate towards Sicily. Both western and eastern flank of the trough will be surrounded by very strong flow from low to upper troposphere. Closer to the surface, an arctic outbreak will continue over the Balkans as cold front advances towards the Aegean Sea and western Turkey. Rest of Europe will be under dry and stable conditions, with an exception of Scandinavia.

Thunderstorms are forecast in two regimes: strongly sheared one, ahead of the advancing cold front over parts of Turkey and in weaker shear, under plume of steep lapse rates in the core of the trough over Italy and the Ionian Sea.


DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea, northwestern Greece, western and southern Turkey...

Ahead of the advancing cold front, NWP simulates a plume of modest moisture being advected from southwest and progressing well inland of Turkey and towards the Black Sea. Combined with 6.5 - 7 K/km lapse rates the moisture should suffice for marginal CAPE values. Storms will form along and ahead of the cold front in the environment of very strong vertical wind shear, both in lower and mid troposphere. In the bottom 1 km, models simulate bulk shear over 20 m/s over western Turkey. Furthermore, curved hodographs will allow for locally 200 - 400 m2/s2 of SRH in the 0-1 km layer. Such conditions, in conjunction with low cloud bases, point to threat of tornadoes, including strong ones. Besides tornadoes, severe wind gusts are likely as well along the convective line that will form along the front.

Ultimately, the severe threat will depend on CAPE, which will be marginal at best, and whether it is surface based as the storms progress from the coast inland. Nevertheless, threat seems high enough to warrant a Level 2 for part of the discussed area.