Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Feb 2020 06:00 to Wed 05 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 03 Feb 2020 22:29
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 1 was issued for E France, parts of Germany, Switzerland, and Austria for severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for S Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Albania for severe convective wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A very active weather configuration is expected the following days in Europe, with a developing strong ridge over western Europe and a downstream advection of cold air masses. The cold air masses will be of two origins: 1) a polar maritime air mass from N Atlantic is now moving fast within a short-wave trough towards Central Europe, and 2) a dry arctic air mass at a second stage, is about to bring a cold blast in the Balkans on Wednesday 05/02. Deep convection will be limited over continental Europe, but the strong low/mid-level wind field suggests an environment conducive for severe wind gusts at the surface.
DISCUSSION
.... E France, Germany, Switzerland, and Austria ....
A coherent tropopause disturbance is traversing from the North Sea towards Central Europe destabilizing the environment. Scattered and disorganized storms are expected in the first half of Tuesday 04/02, embedded in a very strongly sheared environment characterized by steep lapse rates. A few localized events of severe convective wind gusts are expected and to a lesser extent, heavy snow/graupel.
.... S Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Albania ....
The aforementioned disturbance will cross the Alps on Tuesday 04/02 and will enter the Adriatic Sea, destabilizing air masses with rather high theta-e values. Dry downslope winds south of the Alps will inhibit convection, but patches of humid low-level air masses over NW Balkans will be able to feed storms on a surface cold front, even away from the more humid coastal areas. The fast-moving cold front will continue to move south in the early morning of Wednesday 05/02 producing locally severe wind gusts and heavy snowfall/graupel.
