Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 16 Jan 2020 06:00 to Fri 17 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Jan 2020 00:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across north-western Spain, western Portugal, and the western Bay of Biscay for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued across Cyprus for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A dep Atlantic trough starts to lift across western Europe. Its axis will rotate around its southern edge and crosses south-western Europe at the end of the period. Warm air masses are advected into Europe ahead of this trough. Lapse rates are poor except for the south-western portions with skinny CAPE profiles.

DISCUSSION

A strong warm conveyor beld / low-level jet affects south-western Europe. Rich maritime moisture is associated with some CAPE due to steeper low-level lapse rates and moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. Given strong low-level flow, severe wind gusts are likely. Additionally, strong veering profiles can support mesocyclones capable of producing tornadoes. Additionally, low-level flow parallel to a slow moving cold front will support excessive rain, in particular along the shores with additional topographic lift.

Cyprus

A trough over the area is associated with weak CAPE and weak flow. Storms are expected that will be slow moving and can produce excessive rain locally. A waterspout is not ruled out as well.