Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Dec 2019 06:00 to Wed 18 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Dec 2019 19:40
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for France mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep trough is entering the Mediterranean on Tuesday 17/12 and a strong baroclinic zone is developing across the western parts of the basin. A strong SWerly flow has been established extending from NW Africa towards Scandinavia and E Europe.
A cyclonic Rossby-wave breaking over the Iberian Peninsula is forecast, leading to the development of a cut-off low over Algeria. Limited CAPE is expected to develop in C France and the western Mediterranean, where the strong mid/low-level flow may be translated to the surface within a few storms, initiated by synoptic lift. Strong LLS overlapping with a few hundred J/kg CAPE may also lead to a few tornadoes.