Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Dec 2019 06:00 to Tue 17 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Dec 2019 03:17
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for SW Iberian Peninsula mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornado chances.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Low pressure systems near Scotland and over Portugal with associated convection. The south end of a frontal zone where warm low level air advects into SW Iberia develops some CAPE. Very strong 1-3 km flow of 20-30 m/s suggests severe convective wind gusts can occur, while also DLS and LLS are supportive of tornado chances. Strong flow over the coastline also may help produce stationary convective cells with excessive convective precipitation.