Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Dec 2019 06:00 to Thu 12 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Dec 2019 23:19
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across the southwestern Turkey coastline and W Cyprus mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the Ionian and the Aegean Sea underneath a deep cyclonic vortex slowly shifting northeastwards. Thunderstorm activity will spread towards the E Mediterranean during the overnight hours. Much of the activity will be non-severe, with an exception of the SE Ionian Sea and the adjacent turkish coastline, as well as W Cyprus during the night. Here, the enhanced vertical wind shear points to a higher chance of severe given better organised storms.

Towards west, a fast-moving, deep trough will translate from the Atlantic towards W Europe during the day. Steep lapse rates underneath cold mid-tropospheric airmass will suffice for at least marginal CAPE with isolated thunderstorms possible. A level 1 was considered for Bay of Biscay and W France as 850 hPa windspeeds may approach 25 m/s with a chance of marginally severe wind gusts. The coverage of severe seems too low to warrant a Level at the moment though.