Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 21 Nov 2019 08:00 to Fri 22 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 21 Nov 2019 09:02
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the Aegean Sea mainly for excessive rain and to a lesser extend large hail and waterspouts.


A large quasi-stationary trough is placed across western Europe. A strong north-westerly mid-level jet streak is directed towards the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa. A mid-level vorticity lobe extends from the Bay of Biscay across the west Mediterranean towards the south Mediterranean. It will lift north-east during the day, affecting the Aegean Sea late in the period. A blocking high is placed across eastern Europe. At low levels, moist air masses are present across the Aegean and east Mediterranean that will overlap with steeper lapse rates late in the period. Some moisture is also present across the west Mediterranean.


Bay of Biscay, west Mediterranean, Aegean Sea

Ahead of the progressing vorticity lobe, low-level lapse rates improve, and latest forecast soundings indicate some low-level MLCAPE. Thunderstorms have formed that spread north-east. Given weak vertical wind shear, storms are not expected to produce severe weather. Due to higher CAPE, some large hail and waterspouts are most likely across the Aegean. Excessive rain is possible along the shores of western and southern France and western Corsica, Sardinia, the boot of Italy, and the Aegean.

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