Valid: Mon 18 Nov 2019 06:00 to Tue 19 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Nov 2019 03:53
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued across the Alboran Sea and coast mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
A new low pressure system develops today over the western Mediterranean Sea as result of southward mid-level absolute vorticity advection and frontogenesis over the Iberian Peninsula. The cold front finds sufficient CAPE across the southern Mediterranean Sea, while struggling across the northwestern Mediterranean where cold air advection at low levels takes place. The warm airmass CAPE is rather marginal, but EL tops are cold enough for thunderstorms.
The Alboran Sea will be traversed by the cold front in the morning, and a linear convective system could develop under the jet streak, with strong vertical shear, SREH and over 45 kts of mean 1-3 km winds. These could result mainly in severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail or a tornado.