Valid: Tue 08 Oct 2019 06:00 to Wed 09 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Oct 2019 21:29
A level 1 was issued for the coasts of SE UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, N Germany, and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for S Greece and W Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and severe convective wind gusts.
An intensifying ridge over the western Mediterranean will result in an anticyclonic Rossby-wave breaking over southern Italy. The resulted cut-off low that is about to form on Tuesday 08/10 will move south towards Africa and it will continue to destabilize the environment of the Central Mediterranean. The advection of warm air masses from southwest towards Central Europe and the presence of unseasonably cold air masses over N-NE Europe will create a wide zone of strong baroclinicity and will intensify the polar jet-stream. Several short-wave troughs can be found in the forecasting maps but convection will be limited to the areas with enough low-level moisture in the North and Baltic Seas.
.... SE UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, N Germany, and Poland ....
Some instability is expected over the North and Baltic Seas during the east-propagation of a cold front, and a few storms may survive to reach the coasts. A high-shear / low-CAPE environment limits any other severe weather threats than severe convective wind gusts, under the jet-stream.
.... S Greece and W Turkey ....
As the cut-off low over South Italy moves south and the associated short-wave trough over the Balkans moves fast east, the N-NE flow in the Aegean Sea intensifies. Several convergence zones may result in persistent storms where PWAT is calculated to exceed 35 mm and excessive precipitation events are possible. Given the E-NE storm motions later on Tuesday, storms will reach the coasts of Turkey where the flash-flood threat is increased, whereas limited CAPE with weak lapse rates and saturated profiles decrease the probability for large hail. Thunderstorm activity should stop during the late evening of Tuesday.
Waterspouts will continue to form near the coasts of S Italy, Tunisia, Greece and Turkey until the afternoon of Tuesday.