Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 24 Sep 2019 12:00 to Tue 24 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 24 Sep 2019 12:19
Forecaster: DAFIS

A large MCS has formed over SW Greece and has already produced severe weather events such as flash floods, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. From satellite imagery, we can monitor the movement of the storms as they progress eastward, exiting Peloponnese and entering the Aegean Sea. Despite the latest NWP model outputs which do not produce precipitation in Cyclades, a possible intensification of the system may occur over the sea, west of Cyclades. CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg overlapping with 15-20 m/s DLS and comparable 0-3km bulk shear create a conducive environment for sustaining the storms and even intensifying the MCS. Rather drier mid-levels east of the MCS do not seem to inhibit the ongoing convection. Excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes may hit Cyclades until 18z before the system continues east to SE Aegean. For this part of the domain please refer to the main forecast.

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