Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 04 Aug 2019 06:00 to Mon 05 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 03 Aug 2019 12:13
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued across far SE-Sweden for heavy rain and isolated hail.

A level 1 was issued for NE-Spain for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N-Algeria/NW-Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Turkey and Georgia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of SW-Russia/SE-Ukraine mainly for tornadoes, large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

Ridging over S-/CNTRL-Europe and the back of an extensive cyclonic vortex over NE-Europe result in marginal conditions for organized DMC activity (subsidence and advection of a dry air mass towards SE Europe).


DISCUSSION

... Ireland ...

An occlusion crosses Ireland during the afternoon/evening with better LL moisture and a tad better mid-level lapse rates both result in 400-700 J/kg MLCAPE. DLS in the 15 m/s range is adequate for a few longer-lived updrafts with strong wind gusts and isolated hail. Overall risk is too low for a level 1. Beyond sunset, conditions detoriate rapidly.

... Elsewhere ...

Numerous regions with some overlap of shear/CAPE exist and were highlighted with lightning areas. Isolated hail and gusty winds become the main hazard. A few level 1 areas were added however for:

- N-Algeria and N-Tunisia with 15 m/s DLS, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and inverted-V profiles pointing to a large hail and damaging wind gust threat beneath strong updrafts

- NE-Spain with 1-2 kJ/kg MLCAPE, 15 m/s DLS and isolated CI due to weak WAA regime (although warming mid-levels and prevailing subsidence keep storms on the isolated side)

- SE-Sweden with 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-20 m/s DLS, indicating a risk for hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts (including heavy rain due to clustering tendencies)

- parts of Turkey, Georgia and extreme SW Russia/SE-Ukriane with overlapping ingredients (1000 J/kg and 15-20 m/s DLS) favoring large hail and severe wind gusts. E of the Black Sea enhanced LL speed/directional shear also points to an augmented tornado threat (probably maximized next to the Sea of Azov).