Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 25 Jul 2019 16:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 20:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2019 16:38
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Across the Lake District, a complex of thunderstorms has developed within an environment of around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong, around 20 m/s, 0-3 km wind shear, supportive of supercells. Thus, large hail will be a distinct threat. It is likely that the storms will produce strong outflow, given the deep boundary layer in place. In combination with the strong lower tropospheric shear, the risk of a forward propagating bow echo exists, which should be capable of producing a swath of damaging wind gusts.