Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 24 Jul 2019 06:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 24 Jul 2019 05:49
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across parts of Russia, Ukraine and the western Caucasus region mainly for excessive rainfall and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

As of 06 UTC, a large stratiform cloud shield with isolated embedded thunderstorms continues over parts of UK and the North Sea ahead of a short-wave that pushes the storms to N and NE. Scattered thunderstorms are also ongoing over the SW part of the Black Sea. Highly amplified ridge, stretching from the W Mediterranean into Scandinavia contributes to the lack of DMC chances across much of W and Central Europe, perhaps with an exception of the Alpine range.

An exception will be a cyclonic vortex over E Europe, where seasonably moist airmass contributes to around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from the Black Sea into the W Caucasus region, E Ukraine and further N into Russia. With DLS between 10 and 20 m/s, well organised multicells are possible, including some transient supercells. Stronger cells will be capable of large hail, but the primary threat will be excessive rainfall, given very moist profiles and significant warm cloud depth. The highest risk of flash floods is anticipated on the southern slopes of W Caucasus during the night and early morning hours as upslope flow contributes to numerous rounds of storms in the area.