Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 11 Jul 2019 06:00 to Fri 12 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 10 Jul 2019 23:08
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for Turkey mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive trough is placed across east Europe. In the wake of a short-wave trough crossing Turkey, dry and stable air masses spread into the Mediterranean. Ridging affects western Europe.

DISCUSSION

Turkey

The remnants of overnights storms will move east across Turkey on Thursday, especially at the start of the forecast period. Stable low levels will limit severe potential of mostly elevated storms. However, long straight line hodographs will still support splitting storms capable of large hail and local severe gusts. During the day, mid-level lapse rates decrease from the north. Additionally, low-level moisture will decrease. Best potential for afternoon storms exists over the mountains where weak CAPE is likely to be released. After sunset, this activity is forecast to decay.

Northern Italy

Drier and stable air masses gradually spread into Italy. However, in the wake of the Alps, some moisture can remain, and weak CAPE can build in the afternoon. With north-westerly flow at mid levels, strong vertical wind shear is forecast across northern Italy. Main question is if storms will develop. Current thinking is that some storms may develop across the Alps and than move east of south-eastward posing a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. Overall activity will be much weaker compare to Wednesday.