Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 06 Jul 2019 15:00 to Sat 06 Jul 2019 19:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 06 Jul 2019 15:39

Storm coverage is expected to increase over the southern Alps over the next few hours as vorticity maximum travels eastward across the highest Alps, and CAPE of 1500 - 3000 J/kg is in place across the valleys and forelands. Ample vertical wind shear of 20-25 m/s in the 0-6 km AGL layer will support supercells with a risk of very large hail, as well as isolated downbursts. NWP guidance suggests that storms will move into the plains of NE Italy during the latter half of the period, while still maintaining a risk of hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with any well-developed supercell.

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