Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 15 Jun 2019 15:00 to Sat 15 Jun 2019 19:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 15 Jun 2019 15:22
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/TASZAREK/PUCIK

Along and ahead of a cold front, a very unstable air-mass is present as temperatures have risen to 30-34 deg C and dew points are between 17 and 20 C. As a result, CAPE should be around or above 2500 J/kg. Wind shear is moderate with 10-15 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear, and thus supportive of multicells and short-lived supercell structures where aided by orography.

A pronounced threat of large or very large (>5 cm) hail will exist with these storms, along with a risk of locally damaging gusts. Until 19 UTC, storm coverage is expected to increase further and they may congeal into a mesoscale convective system at which point the hail risk should diminish, but the wind risk will persist, and the risk of local very high rainfall will amplify. This risk will be the highest with slow-moving storms over Czechia.