Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 12 Jun 2019 15:00 to Wed 12 Jun 2019 18:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Jun 2019 14:42
Forecaster: PUCIK

A threat of severe and extremely severe wind gusts is increasing over NE Germany.

Current radar imagery shows two intense supercells moving NNE that may be capable of very large hail and severe wind gusts. Satellite imagery reveals deepening of Cu field along the frontal zone as the synoptic-scale lift overspreads the region. Therefore, we expect a fast increase in convective storm coverage and cell clustering in the following hour. Lindenber 12 UTC sounding shows well mixed and deep boundary layer. As drier airmass advects from the east, conditions will become more favourable for development of strong cold pools. These combined with more than 15 m/s of shear in the 0-3 km layer will likely result in one or two bow-echoes racing N - NNE wards. Severe to extremely severe wind gusts are anticipated with the bow-echoes and one of the systems may affect the Berlin metropolitan area within the forecast time frame.

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