Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 12 Jun 2019 12:00 to Wed 12 Jun 2019 16:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Jun 2019 12:09
Forecaster: PUCIK

Satellite loops reveal rapidly deepening convective clouds developing on the convergence zone between W Czech Republic and Central Germany. The first lightning strikes have been observed as well and it seems that initiation is well underway. We expect the storms to spread N and NEward, towards the airmass characterized by dewpoints between 15 and 20 deg C and increasing temperatures thanks to abundant heating. Well organised linear segments and supercells are anticipated in 15 to 20 m/s of 0-6 km shear. In strongly sheared environment combined with high CAPE values, storms will pose threat of (very) large hail and damaging wind gusts. Threat of severe gusts will increase towards the east of the MD area, where T - Td spreads are exceeding 15 deg C, enhancing DCAPE values. Very heavy rainfall will be more likely in the western part of the area, where higher RH is observed throughout low to mid-troposphere.

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