Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 May 2019 06:00 to Wed 15 May 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 May 2019 21:20
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Russia and E Ukraine for large hail, severe convective wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for S Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, N Greece and W Bulgaria for large hail, severe convective wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NW Turkey for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

The large cut-off low in Central Mediterranean is decaying as another short-wave trough approaches from the north. A strong ridge has formed in W Europe with high geopotentials up north to Iceland. The better thermodynamic environments for DMC during Tuesday and early morning of Wednesday can be found in Eastern Europe, in the Balkans and Russia. Several storms will again form below the core of the cut-off low in Italy and Central Mediterranean, but severe weather threat is limited, apart from a few waterspouts near the coasts.

DISCUSSION

.... Russia and Ukraine....

A pool of high low-level moisture content and steep mid-level lapse rates will create some hundreds of CAPE, weakly capped according to the GFS model, while the IFS builds some stronger CIN with later CI. Nevertheless, storms that will form into this highly unstable environment will be able to produce large hail and severe convective wind gusts. Locally high LLS with veering winds and low LCL values increase the threat for tornadogenesis more to the west side of the level-1 area.

.... S Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, N Greece and W Bulgaria ....

At the east side of the cut-off low, southwesterly winds bring moist air masses from the Mediterranean. No significant overlap of DLS and large CAPE is forecast, but 10-15 m/s DLS and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE increase the threat for large hail events. In S Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia slow storm motions and high PWAT may lead to local flash floods.

.... NW Turkey ....

NWP models provide very different outputs regarding CI in this part of Turkey, as GFS forecasts stronger convergence zones near the surface than IFS and ICON EU, even though IFS and GFS simulate comparable dew points. Any storm that will succeed to form will be able to produce severe weather, given a strong overlap of large CAPE, 20-25 m/s DLS and strong mid-level helicity.