Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 18 Apr 2019 06:00 to Fri 19 Apr 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 18 Apr 2019 06:32
Forecaster: GATZEN

No threat level has been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A closed stationary low over the Iberian Peninsula and weakening low geopotential over Turkey and Greece flank a ridge from the west Mediterranean to northern Europe. Dry air masses have spread south- and westward into most of Europe. Over the south-western portions, more substantial moisture is present, in particular along a frontal boundary ahead of the cut-off low. However, strong capping is expected and thunderstorms are not likely to develop in this area. Convective storms are expected to form within the cold air masses of the both troughs on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Portugal and Spain

Latest satellite imagery indicates some convective storms along the southern shores of Spain. Farther north, the sky is partly clear over the western portions. Daytime heating in this area is expected to result in CAPE due to relatively moist low-level air masses. Storms that form will be not well-organized as vertical wind shear is expected to be weak. Main threat is large hail is the stronger storms in particular at the eastern portions of the thunderstorm area where deep layer shear is about 15 m/s. However, given marginal CAPE there, threat is quite limited.

Greece and southern Turkey and surroundings

Skinny CAPE is expected in a relatively dry air mass with weak lapse rates. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mountains and along the sea-breeze convergence today. Given weak CAPE, chances for severe weather are limited. However, increasing deep layer vertical wind shear in the southern parts may support some multicells capable of producing local large hail.

Farther south, inverted-v profiles over Syria point to a chance of severe wind gusts.