Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 24 Mar 2019 06:00 to Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Mar 2019 20:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for the SE North Sea mainly for an isolated severe wind gust risk.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Iraq mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

High geopotential heights cover an area from the Bay of Biscay to the CNTRL Mediterranean. A cut-off is placed over S-Portugal with a quasi-stationary upper trough (evolving cut-off) S of Turkey. A belt with strong westerlies runs from Scotland to Romania. An embedded strong impulse crosses the North Sea and affects Denmark and N-Germany during the end of the forecast.
Cold and dry conditions continue over N/E Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Level 1s and lightning areas ...

Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms occur in the vicinity of the upper low over far S-Portugal, Spain and N-Morocco. Despite augmented DLS, marginal CAPE keeps severe probabilities low.

Scattered thunderstorms occur over Syria and Iraq ahead of the evolving cut-off. Again, meager CAPE and weak CIN (widespread showers/embedded thunderstorms/limited diabatic heating) keep severe probabilities low during daytime hours.
Conditions for severe improve during the night as a NE-ward lifting low from Saudi Arabia interacts with a plume of warm/moist and unstable air from the Persian Gulf. Clustering convection with excessive rain will be the main hazard and flash flooding is possible.

Probably the highest risk (although still conditional) of somewhat more organized convection exists over the SE North Sea and far N Germany beyond 00Z. A sharp upper trough drives a cold front S/SE which is placed beneath the left exit region of a powerful mid-level jet. Enhanced convection (probably in the form of a temporal NCFR) is forecast along the cold front with a few severe wind gusts next to the coast and just onshore. Rather weak low-tropospheric flow and weak LL convergence with a marginal angle between the pre/postfrontal flow direction in addition to low-end CAPE should add a constant weakening trend of the convective line and attendant severe risk well onshore. We expanded the lightning area more to the south to account for an isolated non-severe thunderstorm along the cold front but also to the northwest for postfrontal (thundery) convection.