Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Mar 2019 06:00 to Wed 20 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Mar 2019 22:13
Forecaster: DAFIS

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

An embedded short-wave trough on the left side of a long-wave trough over Central Europe is about to form a cut-off low in the western Mediterranean. The PVA associated with this disturbance will provide large scale lift to quite moist air masses and several weakly electrified updrafts will form in West Mediterranean, with most of them staying offshore. Low CAPE and DLS values exclude severe weather events, apart from some waterspouts that may form.

Low geopotentials can be found also over S Italy and the Balkans, where thunderstorms will be driven by diurnal heating. Steep low and mid-level laspe rates and low wet bulb temperatures increase substantially the probability for local hail/graupel on the ground. Limited production of CAPE and the weakly sheared environment limit the threat for big hailstones, but large accumulations under slow-moving storms is well possible.

Other areas expecting thunderstorms are: 1) the Middle East, in the borders of Turkey, Syria and Iraq with locally severe convective wind gusts (>20 K delta theta-e values), 2) the west coasts or Norway where a strong westerly flow will be set due to an approaching family of lows, and 3) parts of Poland and the Baltic States are candidates for some short-living storms where enhanced baroclinicity is placed in the southern parts of a Scandinavian low.