Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Feb 2019 06:00 to Wed 13 Feb 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Feb 2019 22:26
Forecaster: DAFIS

Two level-1 areas have been issued for W Greece and Turkey mainly for hail, severe wind gusts and locally excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep long-wave trough brings a cold polar air mass over Europe, entering the much warmer Mediterranean Sea, destabilizing the southern parts of the continent. The air mass is characterized by very low mixing ratios, and only east of the axis trough we expected DMC to develop, where QG-forcing is maximized. A cold front near the surface will cross S Italy and Greece in the morning, where strong DLS overlaps with some hundreds of CAPE and storms may locally produce graupel or large amounts of small hail. In the afternoon, in the eastern islands of the Aegean Sea and W Turkey locally severe wind gusts and small hail may also lead to local disruptions. The convergence line may also lead to locally excessive rainfall events due to the saturated vertical profiles.