Valid: Sun 27 Jan 2019 06:00 to Mon 28 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Jan 2019 17:26
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Another potent upper trough moves in from the NW and puts up an extensive cyclonic vortex over W-CNTRL Europe. Most of the European continent remains covered by dry and cold air with slightly better low-tropospheric moisture over the Mediterranean. An exception will be the region beneath that large-scale vortex, where more humid air from the Atlantic spreads over W/CNTRL Europe beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore an extensive area with isolated to scattered thunderstorm probabilities exists due to an overlap of marginal SBCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. More robust CAPE exists over the far E Mediterranean with scattered thunderstorms forecast. An isolated waterspout risk evolves in this area (e.g. S Turkey) due to supportive spout indices, but this does not warrant a level 1.
Elsewhere, strongest thunderstorms bring graupel/marginal hail and gusty winds. A low-end tornado risk exists over SW-France with slightly stronger LL directional shear during the afternoon. Nevertheless this risk is too diffuse for any level issuance.
During the night a general upswing in thunderstorm activity is anticipated around Italy with heavy rain and an isolated coastal tornado risk.