Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 15 Jan 2019 06:00 to Wed 16 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Jan 2019 20:41
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for SE Greece and S Turkey mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Once again a polar air mass is traveling south to the Mediterranean, through the Balkans, as the high-pressure system in N Atlantic and the low-pressure system over Scandinavia work synergetically in creating a northwesterly flow over Europe. A strong ridge has built-up in W Europe, with an axis between Algeria and N Atlantic, while a long-wave trough in eastern Europe brings a very cold air-mass over the much warmer Mediterranean. A pre-existing cyclone in S Italy will take advantage of the PVA over the area to further deepen in the Aegean Sea, bringing all kinds of severe weather to the eastern part of the Mediterranean.


DISCUSSION

.... Greece, Turkey, Cyprus ....

In the early morning of Tuesday 15/01 we expect the biggest part of S Aegean to be covered by thunderstorms, induced by several convergence zones and abundant QG lifting. Unstable air masses in SE Greece and steep lapse rates create about 400-600 J/kg, overlapping with strong DLS, in the order of 20-30 m/s, and veering winds. All kinds of severe weather are expected in such an environment, so a level-2 area marks the parts of Greece and Turkey where we expect excessive rainfall, large hail or large accumulations of small hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. The warning for severe wind gusts and tornadoes is also supported by the LL jet-streak accompanying the cyclone, creating strong LLS and SREH.

Excessive precipitation and hail events may also occur in Cyprus, and while the thunderstorms will dissipate in Greece and SW Turkey in the afternoon, in Cyprus and SE Turkey they will continue during the night and early morning of Wednesday 16/01.