Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 09 Jan 2019 06:00 to Thu 10 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 08 Jan 2019 20:53
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across W Greece, Crete and W Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The synoptic-scale situation will remain similar to the previous forecast days with a highly amplified flow over Europe and an extensive ridge over the E Atlantic. Persistent deep trough over the Central and E Mediterranean keeps focusing isolated to scattered DMC activity to this region. During this forecast period, a core of the vortex is forecast to translate from Central Europe towards Italy and cyclogenesis is expected over this area.

Falling pressure will enhance the lower tropospheric wind and will result in a broad belt of 20+ m/s 850 hPa SW-ly flow stretching from the S Mediterranean across Greece and towards Turkey. Forecast soundings suggest that rather low-topped convection will be likely in the tongue of moister and warmer airmass advected with the SW-ly flow. Forecast hodographs reveal substantial shear only in the boundary layer over the land areas. Primary threat will be excessive rainfall arising in multiple waves of precipitation over the highlighted areas thanks to the strong orographic lift, in the environment of skinny CAPE and low LCLs.

A level 1